S&P 500 futures up 41 points
Most of yesterday's 51 point decline in the S&P 500 is set to be erased with futures up 41 points.
The market was negative immediately after non-farm payrolls but is feeling better about a strong economy and jobs growth new, especially with US 10-year yields...
Higher yields drive dollar bid
The US dollar is at the best levels of the day in the aftermath of a surprisingly strong non-farm payrolls report.
The dollar moved higher in lockstep with yields. US 10s are up 5.1 bps to 1.615%, breaking last Thursday's spike high.
What's the ceiling on this move?
US 10-year yields are at the highs of the day, up 1.58%. All eyes are on the auction spike high of 1.6085% from last week and that's going to be the make-or-break level today. Nerves are building about next week's auction slate as well.
Jobs report due out at the bottom of the hour
Wednesday's soft readings on ADP and ISM services employment put a negative bias into the jobs data. The consensus is 198K from +49K in January. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 6.3%.
Japan prime minister, Yoshihide Suga, makes the announcement official
This just confirms reports from earlier in the week, as Tokyo's state of emergency is now extended to 21 March. The virus situation in Japan has gotten much better in recent weeks and hasn't been much of a factor to the...
Equities stay on the defensive even as bonds are seen calmer so far today
Dip buyers were a little interested at the tail-end of Asian trading but the mood has turned since with S&P 500 futures seen down 0.4%, Nasdaq futures down 0.6%, Dow futures down 0.4%, and Russell 2000...
The firm expects the Fed to rein in the rise in yields at some point
But until then, they expect the dollar to continue rallying until YCC is introduced and that the announcement will trigger the "start of a great bear market".
Risk stays more cautious to start the session
- Eurostoxx -0.6%
- Germany DAX -0.7%
- France CAC 40 -0.6%
- UK FTSE -0.7%
- Spain IBEX -0.4%
Treasuries are keeping calmer for now, with 10-year yields seen down 2 bps to 1.543%. However, it is still early in the day to be really driving...
Latest data released by the SNB - 5 March 2021
Slight delay in the release by the source. Another jump in foreign reserves last month and that largely reaffirms the SNB commitment to keep the franc lower. They certainly can take heart in the recent EUR/CHF push above 1.1100 this...
Softer tones observed in early trades
The declines are relatively modest as there is a perceived calm in Treasuries after the post-Powell surge higher yesterday. 10-year yields are near flat at 1.563% for now.
Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts
As much as the kicking and screaming may still continue, at some point, you have to wonder how much higher yields can go and what exactly is the Fed's breaking point?
Risk sentiment improves ahead of European morning trade
The in the JGB market is also somewhat helping the mood but then again, the Japanese central bank also owns more than two-thirds of JGBs so there's that.
The Nikkei closes near the highs for the day as losses are trimmed
The risk mood at the tail-end of Asian trading is one that looks to be getting better as the market digests the post-Powell narrative. The BOJ has certainly helped to ease concerns in the Japanese market but...
10-year JGB yields are down by 8 bps today to 0.07%
a number of dovish remarks
So far, that is working as yields have fallen to their lowest since mid-February. Then again, when you own more than two-thirds of the bond market, it would be embarrassing to not be able to...
Little on the agenda in Europe to distract from the post-Powell narrative
Fed chair Powell didn't make any friends with other major central banks yesterday as he went cold turkey in offering little to no suggestions that the Fed is the wee bit concerned about the recent and sharp rise...
The 7-day incidence rate is seen at 65.4
The improvement in the virus situation in Germany points towards a plateau for the time being, with total active cases seen at ~119,000 - little changed in the past week.
Reuters polled analysts on the 'reflation ' trade with most expecting it to continue at least another month.
The piece was published Thursday.
In it was a forecast for the EUR/USD at 1.25 in 12 months (same as the January and February polling).
Forex news for Asia trading
5 March 2021
was a lower start for currencies against a Powell-bid USD and that
carried on somewhat into Asia time, although in much, much smaller
ranges. AUD/USD dipped under 0.7700 (its just above as I update)
while NZD is also down. EUR/USD slipped a little further but...